Latest Asian Steel Price Trends

In China, despite the recent trend of the stock market, rebar futures and forward markets rebounded slightly, but on the spot market, the real impact is not large, slightly better state of mind and sluggish turnover poured cold water pouring cold. Opened this week, is still continuation of last week to run the disadvantaged, each finished China steel prices dropped again. Lumber prices lower reverse towed upstream billet and coke prices to weaken, but also makes the downstream procurement caution is becoming increasingly clear, take the goods market further weakening of short-term weakness will continue.

In India, the steel market remains weak. Indian hot rolled coil market is weak. The local ex-factory price is maintained at of 33750-34250 rupees / tonne ($ 625-635 / t), equivalent to 581-591 U.S. dollars / ton (CFR) plus 7.5% import duty. With the international steel market weakness, import resources to offer continued to fall, Chinese commercial grade hot rolled coil exports to India at 560-570 U.S. dollars / ton (CFR), 5-15 U.S. dollars / ton, down from last week, but the buyer offered $ 550 / ton (CFR). The cold rolling mill and end users is increasing interest on imported resources, but cautious traders and dealers expected prices continue to fall. Due to weak demand, coupled with imports increasing pressure on India this month, the price of hot rolled fear of decline 500-1000 rupees / tonne ($ 9-19 / t).

In Taiwan, the steel market continued to decline. Plate import market decline. 550-560 U.S. dollars / ton (CFR), now China and Ukraine and Resources News India resources offer about 510 U.S. dollars / ton (FOB) compared with the previous two months, a drop of 110 U.S. dollars / ton, buyers bid at $ 540 / ton (CFR) below the acceptable range beyond the steel mills. Given the current market instability, the buyers are willing to take risks under single market waiting to see darker. Expected short-term the Taiwan plate market will continue to be bottoming.

In Southeast Asia, the the rebar market fell. Due to weak demand, coupled with imported billet and scrap drop in price, Southeast Asia rebar prices will decline. Thailand rebar prices 18400-18500 baht / ton (622-626 U.S. dollars / ton, the rationale dollars), more than two weeks ago, a decrease of 500 baht / ton (17 U.S. dollars / ton). Malaysia 10-12mm threaded offer 2380 ringgit / ton ($ 796 / t) to 2310-2370 ringgit / tonne ($ 773-793 / t), 13-32mm threaded offer from 2230 ringgit / ton (746 U.S. dollars / ton) relaxed to the 2210-2230 ringgit / tonne ($ 739-746 / t). With the end of the Malaysian general election, the market expects that the construction of large-scale projects will speed up the process, the terminal demand will rebound, of rebar prices or soon rose. However, the needs of other countries may rebound limited, and after the rainy season in June and July, the terminal needs to slow further, the consolidation coming months rebar market in Southeast Asia is expected to run.

Above all, the prices of steel show the trend of not stability, via the latest marketing survey, we can find that some steel products will uplift according to the demand of steel market, like angle iron, galvanized angle, rectangular tube, square tube, galvalume steel, ERW pipe, etc. So long as focusing on the latest trend of steel news, we will get more chance for steel trade.

China Steel Information

The last day before the holiday, the nation's major market steel prices unexpectedly comprehensive stabilize run, the market mentality is basically in a peaceful state. According to market monitoring: As of the close, the average price of 25mm rebar 3614 yuan, down 20 yuan from last Friday; 6.5mm high line average 3564 yuan or 16 yuan; 5.5mm hot-rolled average price of 3,710 yuan, down 37 ; 1.0mm cold-rolled average price of 4,807 yuan, down 24 yuan; 20mm plate average price of 3,754 yuan, down 26 yuan.

This week, the domestic stock market fell nearly 3%, steel futures prices fell more than 2%, leading to poor market sentiment. Despite the recent market turnover situation has obviously improved, according to statistics the country's 29 major cities in construction steel, hot-rolled coil, cold rolled coil, plate the total inventory on the decline, but still high inventory levels of all varieties, businesses pressure is still large, strong willingness to return the funds by demand season, pay close attention to the shipping, very price and even pull up the price of power shortage. Short term, although shipments will continue to be maintained at a high level, 51 postganglionic stock will continue to decline, but the premise of the high-yield, for the subsequent arrival of resources concerns, a single from the spot market level, it is difficult to pull prices rebounded significantly. Poor economic conditions, unless the country has a more powerful stimulus policies we mentioned before, Hebei began efforts to cut one-third of steel production capacity policy implementation, the steel market will have a turning point.

This week, the the prices of sheet metal market of domestic continue to slightly lower, especially is the hot rolled steel plate volume Product Price, the of its financial property is the strongest, to follow the steel futures, the trend of the in the long-term electronic disk Price is the more obvious, decline is also of the relatively large. But the all over the, of all varieties sheet metal decline in the prices of compared to with the last few weeks has been distinctly narrowed from the, This with the that have a great relationship on the the heavy volume of of the demand. Week of hot-rolled coil, cold rolled coil, plate stock declined.

Labour Day, the overall level of demand is still expected to continue to enlarge the sales of businesses still remain at a high level. But now higher than the same period last year about 20% of the inventory levels, the formation of a greater pressure on the dealer, so that the price level is difficult to significantly improved. However, if the domestic stock market, steel futures market prices after the holiday can rebound, the stock market there may be some improvement. In a two-day weekend, the domestic stock market, steel futures, electronic trading are not opening, the all varieties spot steel prices have remained stable. But greater impact on of the steel billet Price the trend of the spot price goes low continuously in the weekend two days, the two days of the cumulative decline in reached 40 yuan, As of press, the Tangshan region Carbon 150 billet Price for the 3.16 thousand yuan, reached a the the lowest level in in the this year after the Spring Festival. From the billet market trend during the holiday season, the Festival steel spot market is still not optimistic. The domestic steel market wants to get rid of the dilemma, but also the national macro-stimulus force to appear. There is also a way out is the the domestic steel mills be able to take the initiative to of the. These two from the the the the current signs of point of view, the short-term within the both the difficult to achieve. However, there are a little might be interested in the latter part of the market trend the formation of the policy of the important influence in the we need to focus. Recent media reports, Hebei will be a 1/3 cut in steel production capacity. Mainly is out of to the environmental considerations, the use of the environmental protection means to achieve the abatement of the steel production capacity. In in 2012, the Hebei crude steel production 1.8 billion tons, the average monthly 15 million tons, minus 1/3 is the 5 million t. We need to focus efforts in May this policy implemented and the specific implementation, if you really can have this amount, the market will change, the market price may rise significantly.

Steel Trade From China

Major cities of China steel storing decreased by 47 million tons last week: As of last Friday (2013-4-19) the five steel of the major cities across the country (rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coils, steel plate) social steel stocks totaled 2084.25 tons, a decrease of 4.7 million tons compared to the same period in the previous week, has increased qoq, Description of steel the destocking has accelerated, especially rebar market turnover improved markedly.

Consistent decline in the domestic construction steel market last week, by the capital market crash, the market mentality was shocking, merchants offer have been lower. In addition, although recently with the weather warming, the downstream site starts increased procurement requirements than in the past, an increase in inventory of construction steel market decline, but demand for the release speed is far less than "to stock" speed "to the inventory the process seems to be rather long, and also restricting the process of the construction steel market thoroughly warmed. According to latest statistics show that China Iron and Steel Association, crude steel output of the key enterprises in early April 1.6973 million tons, an increase of 2.14 million tons, ten-day growth of 1.28%; national forecast crude steel output of 2,123,900 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons, late growth of 2.51%, a new record. The current point of view, on the one hand, a continuation of the high-volume, on the one hand, high inventory status quo, construction steel market substantive improvement in the pace will be slow down significantly.

Monitoring shows that as of April 19, China 10 major cities 25mm rebar average price of 3634 yuan (t price, the same below), down 60 yuan over the previous weekend, down 99 yuan over the same period the previous month. First-tier cities all fell, the decline in the $ 20-110 range, a drop of up to 110 yuan Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Xi'an, Chengdu or 60-90 yuan, other cities fell 20-50. 10 major cities in 25mm rebar average price of 3,595 yuan, 50 yuan, down from last weekend, down 91 yuan over the same period the previous month; Hangzhou, down 110 yuan, down 60-90 yuan Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi'an , Wuhan, Shenyang and other cities down 10-50. China 10 major cities 6.5mm high line average 3580 yuan, than last weekend, down 47 yuan, down 74 yuan over the same period the previous month; Zhengzhou flat, Beijing, Guangzhou, down 80-90 yuan, other cities fell 20-50 million.

Hot rolled coil: monitoring shows that, as of April 19, the average price of 10 major domestic cities 5.5mm hot-rolled coil is 3747 yuan, down 105 yuan over the previous weekend, down 194 yuan over the same period the previous month; Beijing, Shanghai,Hangzhou, Shenyang, Tianjin or 100-150, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Chengdu, down 80-90. Inventory, according to statistics, as of April 19, the 29 major cities hot rolled coil inventory reached 4.536 million tons, compared with the same period last week, an increase of 14,600 tons, an increase of 0.32% over the same period the previous month by 3.07% , 1.06% lower than the same period last year. The leading city of the South Shanghai Stock 1.13 million tons last week by 30,000 tons, an increase of 2.73%; Guangzhou inventory of 77.8 million tons, down 0.5 million tons more than last week, a decline of 0.64%. The dominant northern city of Tianjin, the stock market is 529,000 tons, down 0.8 million tons more than last week, a decline of 1.49%; Handan 14.8 million tons, down 04,300 tons, a decline of 2.84%.: monitoring shows that, as of April 19, the average price of 10 major domestic cities 5.5mm hot-rolled coil is 3747 yuan, down 105 yuan over the previous weekend, down 194 yuan over the same period the previous month; Beijing, Shanghai,Hangzhou, Shenyang, Tianjin or 100-150, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Chengdu, down 80-90. Inventory, according to statistics, as of April 19, the 29 major cities hot rolled coil inventory reached 4.536 million tons, compared with the same period last week, an increase of 14,600 tons, an increase of 0.32% over the same period the previous month by 3.07% , 1.06% lower than the same period last year. The leading city of the South Shanghai Stock 1.13 million tons last week by 30,000 tons, an increase of 2.73%; Guangzhou inventory of 77.8 million tons, down 0.5 million tons more than last week, a decline of 0.64%. The dominant northern city of Tianjin, the stock market is 529,000 tons, down 0.8 million tons more than last week, a decline of 1.49%; Handan 14.8 million tons, down 04,300 tons, a decline of 2.84%.

Steel Prices will be trend of rising in China

Relative to the same period in 2012, the level of steel prices this year as a whole compared to last year were down 200 yuan / ton; peak of the first half of last year, steel demand for the release in late April to May, so it seems that this year should be according tolikely go with the original track; specific point of view, we believe that steel prices this month to usher in a real rebound, you may need to explore from the following aspects.

Enter mid-March, the market reaction turnover improved, but by the author's observation, the downstream buyers become very cautious, multi-demand procurement, rarely concentrated replenishment; description of this stage downstream sectors of the steel market has always held a cautious wait-and-see attitude. In fact, with the nearly two years since the global economic slowdown, the steel industry and downstream industry boom of the obvious fall in the raw materials and other cost control more strictly, the downstream industry is too concerned about the changes in the steel market, further forcing steel post cast more tangled. In this way, the actual demand if there is no real release, depends on expectations has been difficult to easily pry the big changes in the steel city.

From Steel Association released the latest data show that until the end of the end of March, the key steel enterprises internal steel stocks fell about 800000-13700000 t, amounting to ten days for the first time to drop, while at the same time last week, the social stock of steel continuous the third week dropped to 21.62 million tons; inside and outside the steel stocks double down; greater amount of end demand for the release. Ching Ming Festival, this acceleration to the inventory may further increase the high probability event. So for a long period of "price depression" steel market, pull up the grounds, after the festival, sufficient to illustrate this point, the businesses active pull-up will significantly enhance the performance of the market.

From the General Administration of Customs recently latest data show that in March China's steel exports 5.28 million tons, an increase of 4.97%; 1-3 months of total exports of 14.43 million tons of steel, an increase of 18.8%. In March, China imported 1.23 million tons of steel, down 3.15%; 1-3 months of total imports of 3.23 million tons of steel a year-on-year decline of 5.3%. In March, China's imports of iron ore was 64.55 million tons, an increase of 2.67%; imported a total of 186.48 million tons of iron ore in 1-3 months, unchanged from the same period last year. - March, China's steel export volume is the highest since 21 months, the focus is also broke the 500 million tonnes mark.

Generally speaking, China steel prices will have some changes in this month, but the key factors should be decided by the trends of economic. And we can be sure, according to the rising of economic, the demand of steel will rise, like steel plate, steel coil, galvanized steel, and galvanized angle iron will get more demand in the next month.

China Steel in 2013

In view of the above analysis, China steel market can usher in growth, supply and demand in the degree of development remains to be seen. Short term, with the weather gradually gets warmer, the demand for slow release in early April will usher in a wave within a narrow range rebound, but the magnitude will remain limited, and in late still need to pay close attention to the latest trends of the market regulation. New "urbanization" policy, as China's economic growth momentum in the next decade, yet it remains on a conceptual level, only to various rules, the planning and the gradual introduction of the Steel City real good, in addition to all around the island announced details of the five countries bearish steel City, may still lead to early April to pick up market push.

Inventory, with the continuous release of the production capacity of China's iron and steel industry, the history of the highest point of the steel inventories continue to be refreshed, and the stock lowest point is gradually climbing, especially experienced for a long time or later in the macro side early positive superimposed boosted, inventory since 2009, the most visible and lasting rise, as of March 29, according to the statistics: Shanghai rebar inventory of 440,400 tons, an increase of 0.94%, a decrease of 0.3% last week; 485,000 tons Guang zhou MoM decrease of 7.62%, a decrease of 2.05% last week; 937,800 tons Beijing, a decrease of 2.4%, an increase of 1.67 percent last week; wire stock of 66,000 tons, an increase of 0.92% from last week, an increase of 4.64%; 478,000 tons Guang zhou MoM decrease of 11.32%, an increase of 0.56% last week; 92,500 tons Beijing, a decrease of 7.04%, an increase of 1.12% last week.

From sheet plate， as of last week, the domestic steel inventories finally emerged decline, but the plate decline rate has been relatively limited. Hot rolled coil and cold rolled coils inventory reduction of 3.9 million tons and 1.5 million tons respectively over the previous week; inventory of hot rolled coil, Wuxi market reduced by more than 3 million tons, is to reduce the most obvious market. The Tianjin market stocks also fell more than 10 thousand tons; Shanghai and Shenyang market increase of more than 10,000 tons. Little change over the stock market of cold rolled coils. This shows that the downstream industry demand is not great on the plate.

The demand side, while social stock rising demand for the release, but it falls short. Since March, the terminal site gradually return to work, steel demand release, but still significantly limited compared with a high level of inventory, the market destocking willingness markedly effective urgent. Macroeconomic data from February, however, the domestic economy is bottoming out and steady growth trend has not changed, but is still in the running state of sub-health and stable price policy of the central bank and the new "the country five" extremely rules promulgatedunder, the downturn in the steel city, once again increasing the pressure.

Overall, construction steel prices north and south of quite different, North China needs better rebounded pileare offer, the southern region due to continued sluggish demand continues to shock fall; and steel plate, hot-rolled steel market continued to fall, the market traded at its lowest ebb, cold rolled coils stabilize, plate steel steady downward. According to market monitoring: As of closing, 25mm two threaded average price of 3,654 yuan, more than last week, down 32 yuan; 25mm three threaded an average price of 3,703 yuan, down 30 yuan; 6.5mm high line price of 3647 yuan, down 82 yuan ; 5.5mm hot-rolled average price of 3,845 yuan, down 96 yuan; 1.0mm cold-rolled average price of 4,886 yuan, up 2 million; 20mm plate average price of 3,843 yuan, or 24 yuan.

The impact of domestic policies on steel in China

Recent data shows, State five rules promulgated led to relatively large fluctuations in the steel market, traders depressed mood, the market purchases enthusiasm weakened, closing the atmosphere is poor. Construction steel sheet products have appeared slipped sensitive hot rolled steel price decline.

Generally speaking, Domestic major cities Ф25mm three rebar average price of 3849 yuan (t price, the same below), compared to 4 or 6 yuan; the domestic key cities Ф6.5mm high line an average price of 3,718 yuan, compared with $ 4 or 4; domestic prioritiescity ​​5.5mm average price of hot rolled coil is 4013 yuan, down 37 yuan over the 4th; 1.0mm cold plate of the domestic focus of the central city average price of 4,939 yuan, compared with the 4th down 6 million; the domestic key cities 20mm plate average price3953 yuan, compared with 4 or $ 18.

China's GDP growth target this year as well as the increase in CPI of view, stable growth, control inflation is a main tone, means in the context of the loose global liquidity, China's policy-oriented under the premise of stable growth to prevent inflation rise will not sacrifice everything in order to maintain growth. Then for the steel market, in in financial effect amplification push up the price of rising channel, but also consider the needs of the Chinese entity performance, pull the power in the market is affected by the cost factor in the case of rapid increase in inventory, demand starts slow, weak people in the short term, steel prices has yet to reverse the signs of elevation. But the demands of the market holding stability has been strengthened, the steel city today is expected to gradually stabilize.

Factors affecting the domestic construction steel market, mainly the following aspects:

One is the leading steel mills steady mainly. The domestic steel prices shocks down, not many steel mills to adjust to the ex-factory price. Hebei Iron and Steel, Shougang Changzhi guide price of early March raised by 100 yuan / ton, while the East China Shagang rebar prices flat in early March, the whole month of February making it up 100 yuan / ton. Overall, domestic steel prices and market prices generally upside down, but at the cost pressure of circumstances, steel mills offer more to maintain strong price making it up are more limited.

The second is the majority of the raw material prices down. According to the monitoring data show that as of March 1, the Tangshan area carbon billet price of 3250 yuan / ton, down from Friday 50 yuan / ton; Jiangsu Province scrap price of 2900 yuan / ton, unchanged from Friday; Shanxi coke price 1470 yuan / ton, unchanged from Friday; taste dry Tangshan area, 66% iron ore price of 1170 yuan / ton, down from Friday 20 yuan / ton. At the same time, the external disk offer grade 63.5% Indian iron ore fines of $ 152.75 / ton 2.75 U.S. dollars / ton, down from Friday.

Third postganglionic steel stocks continue Masukura. According to the monitoring data show that as of March 1, the major varieties of steel inventory total of 21,583,600 tons, weekly chain Masukura 6.78% inventory increase has slowed compared to the previous two weeks, the downstream demand this week must start signs. Now, the total social stock has the same caliber of year-on-year increase in more than 1 million tons, and has hit a record high level of general annual inventory and more experience Masukura 4-6 weeks and then transferred to the downstream channel, so late The destocking task is arduous.

Of course, China policies will make some affect on China steel market, especially, steel prices will be affected. And according to internal prices of steel, the China steel prices will have a proper level.

Latest Trends about Steel from China in 2013

From an economic development perspective, the fourth quarter of 2012, China's economy has finally emerged tended to stabilize, but the economic stability of the foundation is not strong, is expected in 2013 or even longer, China's economy will remain stable, compared with the fast development momentum. Expected based on the above, it is expected that the China steel will enter a stage of total consumption of low growth, the domestic steel market in 2013 will show a slight price fluctuations, a stable trend of the overall operation, including iron and steel enterprise meager profit situation is difficult to be effective in improving.

The world economy continued weakness result in international steel prices fall, affecting China's steel imports and exports.

International Steel City, a drop in demand a direct impact on China's steel exports.In 2012, the weak international economy, international steel trade has shrunk dramatically intensified trade protection and trade friction, in October last year, China's exports of billet 5.14 million tons, 1-October total exports of 40.84 million tons. November, December remained practically monthly 400 million -500 million tons of export levels, and this trend continued until at least the middle of next year. This also shows that within the next two years, the balance between supply and demand of China's steel market depends mainly on the domestic market, and look forward to expanding exports to ease the pressure on the domestic market is unrealistic.

On the other hand, from the domestic point of view, the next time there is still a lot of uncertainties, but overall, in terms of domestic demand, the urbanization of the 48 put forward, people's living standards improve requirements from the ability of the consumer spending habits popularity continue to promote home appliances and consumer conditions, the industry's long-term growth space still exist. From the outside, we need to look at the international market environment is relatively stable, the recovery in demand in the United States, Europe stabilized, the Afro-Asian emerging market demand remains strong, the demand on the international market will remain basically the trend this year, is expected to export growth is expected to be flat with last year.

There will be a greater demand from the machinery industry point of view, the special properties of the steel products. The machinery industry demand for steel diversity, both ordinary steel, another high-value-added special steel. Currently, there is part of the special properties of the steel restricting the development of China's machinery industry, the much-needed iron and steel enterprises in research and development of these varieties of steel. Such as electrical equipment industry, some transformer oriented silicon steel, power station boiler heat steel, special steel pipe and other special welding electrodes for steel and other special steel imports; wear plate (thickness required and if the heavy machinery industry from 30mm ~ 120mm), special welding wire, bearing steel, etc.; Another example is General machinery manufacturing, material not only has a certain mechanical strength, but also have some of the resistance to chemical corrosion, wear and other special performance.

Comprehensive analysis, expected in 2013 Chinese steel production and apparent consumption increase, it will not reach a high level, still low growth, is still the total consumption, low-growth stage; 2013 domestic the steel market will show a small price fluctuations, the overall running stable trend, including iron and steel enterprise meager profit situation will improve.

The situation of China cold rolled steel in March 2013

In February, in China, the market price of cold rolled coil to the rising main. February 28, China's major cities 1.0mm cold plate an average price of 4952 yuan (t), up 111 yuan from the end of January. Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing 1.0mm Omo box board market price of 4860 yuan, 5050 yuan and 5100 yuan, or 170 yuan, 100 yuan and 100 yuan. The other second-tier market price or 60-170 yuan.

Cold rolled steel prices rise, there are mainly two reasons; the one hand, a further rise in steel prices cost more sturdy supporting role. Businesses hoard, on the other hand, a very few, limited resources, market liquidity, resulting in fewer cold-rolled steel products, but prices continue to grow. For Spring Festival is expected to once again good psychological fermentation postganglionic the inertial pull up the role, the pace of rising market prices before and after the Spring Festival has never stopped.

Specifically, the following prices up in February, the domestic large steel mills in the mainstream again blew the horn rose. Especially early in the New Year's Baosteel will surprise the first to raise the price policy in March after the holiday, other steel mills raised prices well ahead of preheating. Indeed, after the Chinese New Year, Shougang, Angang Steel new one price policy have to implement, the March cold rolled rises in 200-250 yuan. The Hebei steel of cold rolled steel producers will also follow the trend of price increases policy, the latter part of the cost of supporting a further consolidated. Just has not been started due to the the postganglionic downstream demand, the price after a space up Xuzhang power tends to weak businesses mainly changed to a stable and a wait-and-see, expected real market revitalization in about 3 months late.

On the other hand, during the Spring Festival market resources around the part arrival, but the arrival of relatively limited, only a few cities in the bulk arrival. Moreover, some steel mills busy exports, a decrease in the amount of domestic resources. However, businesses hoard goods, stocking seek and secure the relatively rare a large number Dongchu operations. Therefore, after the Spring Festival, the market resources is small there is a growing, but still at a low overall inventory. The salable few resources, support a certain price. But if the latter continue to add resources, demand start slow price "late spring" may only adjustment will be more limited. Late start gradually, demand and prices are expected to return to a rising channel.

According to the previous experience, each year, in March and April, is the the downstream demand gradually start of period. With the weather warming, the downstream procurement will gradually start to recover, and then one after another active this year, the pace of urbanization is a "policy year" downstream producers overall than last year's strong vitality, is a good cold rolled steel market. The overall market is expected to occur in March and April, a "peak", downstream needs to start in early March or significantly slow the true sense of the market recovery is a process, not small adjustments to exclude individual time period.

Latest China Steel News in 2013

There is no doubt that 2012 is the last ten years, the most difficult year for the China steel industry, whether manufacturers or trading enterprises are facing tremendous pressure. Near the end of the year, the industry is looking forward to the upcoming 2013, however, the steel industry has entered a cyclical correction in the context of slow economic growth, China steel supply and demand will further exacerbate the coming year, the Steel City, I am afraid it is still hard to Sudden Impact.

For the real economy, especially the manufacturing sector ubiquitous overcapacity, big but not strong, domestic consumption, lack of motivation and other issues. China's economy is facing two problems of structural and cyclical adjustment, the GDP growth rate of about 7% to 8% will be the norm in the future.

The IMF and the World Bank have also lowered the global and China's economic growth is expected in the next two years. IMF to China's 2013 growth forecast down to 8.2%, 0.6 percentage points lower than at the beginning, the World Bank cut China's 2013 GDP growth to 8.1% from 8.6% previously expected.

It can be predicted that in 2013, China's economy will maintain slow growth, annual GDP growth rate is expected to be between 7.6% to 8%.

Comparing the 2012 steel suppliers, we can find the steel pipe and steel plate demand are larger, like ERW pipe, seamless pipes, hot rolled steel plate, cold rolled steel, etc. Besides, the steel coil always keeps a balance situation. Of course, for many industries, galvanized steel coil, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil are playing key role for their production. We can believe these special steel coil will have a bigger supplying and demand.

Based on scale effect, reduce the pursuit of merger risk factors to consider, in recent years, China's steel production capacity is very considerable. According to statistics, this year plans to add 53 blast furnace, iron smelting capacity of about 70000000 tons, crude steel production capacity of 9.3 tons at present; in 2013, plans for additional iron smelting capacity of about 40000000 tons, then China's crude steel production capacity will reach 9.7 tons, 10 tons to close greatly approximation.

Considering the overall poor economic environment, the steel city is difficult to be a fundamental turn for the better, as well as the steel profit difficulties and other factors, the release of production capacity will be affected certainly, is expected in 2013 crude steel production in 7.3 tons ~7.4 tons, increase than 2012 2%~3%.

Since this year, domestic iron ore production capacity output grows steadily. ~9 in January, China's iron ore production reached 9.7 tons, grow 16.6% compared to the same period, predicting annual is expected to reach 15 tons. According to incomplete statistics, China new ore production capacity of more than 4.5 tons, and for many large mining projects, and belongs to the national or the local government encourages project, production capacity will be smooth release. Foreign mines, three mines in the vale of nearly 1 tons of capacity planning completed and put into production in 2013, Rio Tinto plans in 2013 production capacity reached 2 tons.

Based on the above analysis, the China steel industry overcapacity in the illness has reached the adjustment not stage, is expected next year, the main varieties of average steel prices will drop further down, the main varieties in 5% the left and right sides, low will be lower than this year, this year the high and flat or slightly low, whole year or emerged after the former high-low trend.